AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 11/30/25 – 12/6/25

Weekly Market Commentary

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Nov. 30-Dec. 6, 2025

Market comes back as final Fed meeting of 2025 looms

The market has mostly completed its comeback after the valuations and rate-cut jitters that hit us in early November subsided. Last Friday, the S&P 500 crested above its last recorded high from Oct. 28 (6,890.90) and nearly broke through 6,900 intraday before sliding backward.¹ (That’s significant because 7,000 is another one of those psychological levels that would push markets forward, if for no other reason than to see the index hit the 7,000 milestone. Yes, the difference between 6,850 and 6,900 is irrelevant in the longer scheme, but markets aren’t always logical and/or rational.) Similarly, the Dow pierced 48,000, which again spurred talk of it hitting 50,000.² And the Nasdaq almost got to 24,000.³

Now we await the Federal Reserve’s announcement following its final meeting of the year, which concludes on Wednesday, Dec. 10. As of Dec. 7, the odds were at 88.4% in favor of a rate cut.⁴ The trick is going to be navigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting comments about the logic for the cut. If he comes across as panicky or the markets perceive him as signaling trouble for the broader economy, we could have problems.

So, what will the Fed’s logic be? Will it be that inflation is under control and we are cutting? A delayed personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report showed inflation is rangebound and remains elevated, but it’s nowhere near the Fed’s preferred 2% level.⁵ Or will it be that the economy is in such poor health (which it is not, for the record) that jobs are drying up and we need to boost economic activity?

Jobs lose steam, send clear signal to Fed

Even though the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has yet to release October and November employment data thanks to the government shutdown, ADP has provided a steady picture. Some may argue about how representative the ADP reading is, but you can say that about any data-gathering approach — and we would not want to hang our hats on a debate about data-crunching methodology.

The trend shows job growth is flattening and even declining.⁶ Consensus for the ADP reading was calling for +20,000 jobs in November; instead, we lost 32,000. September was also down 32,000, and only 42,000 new jobs were posted in October. We are down a net 22,000 jobs over the past three months.

We will see what the BLS says when we get the delayed reports sometime in the next few weeks, but we can’t imagine the jobs landscape will look materially different from those reports. With the last BLS employment situation (September) showing 4.4% unemployment, that should be enough to get the Fed in gear next week.⁷ There is no denying action is needed now, despite Powell’s comments about pausing rate cuts after the Fed’s last meeting in October.

Powell said back then that December rate cuts were “not a foregone conclusion,” and used missing key indicators as a reason for the Fed to proceed carefully.⁸ But digging in and clinging to a self-declared 2% inflation target while people are becoming and staying unemployed would be Powell’s final policy mistake in a long line of policy mistakes. However, we think Powell and the Fed will see the signs and give us a 25-basis-point (0.25%) cut this week.

Coming this week

• Markets will be listening closely to Powell’s post-meeting comments. They’re currently banking on a rate cut in December and another in the first quarter of 2026. If Powell’s comments sound hawkish, markets may react poorly. This will need to be a “Goldilocks” post-meeting press conference — something for everyone without upsetting anyone.
• Data this week will include a delayed Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report from October. It will likely confirm openings are declining due to less hiring, which we already know.
• Wednesday will feature MBA mortgage applications. Then we’ll get the usual weekly unemployment data on Thursday.
• Third-quarter earnings are nearly done, with 99% of S&P 500 companies reporting results.⁹ For the quarter, 83% of companies reported positive earnings per share (EPS) and 76% reported positive revenue. Earnings growth for the quarter is 13.4%, up from 11.8% in the second quarter. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index. Although the recent pattern of companies not giving guidance appears to continue, 43 companies issued negative EPS guidance and 34 issued positive.
• Valuation after this most recent market sell-off has declined but is still historically high. The S&P 500 forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 22.4 vs. 22.1 last quarter. This P/E ratio is much higher than the 5-year (20.0) and 10-year (18.7) averages.

Index Performance Returns %
	1 WK	YTD	1YR	3YRS	5YRS
S&P 500	0.31%	16.81%	13.09%	19.77%	13.18%
NASDAQ	0.91%	22.10%	19.68%	28.01%	13.60%
DJIA	0.50%	12.72%	7.12%	12.20%	9.68%

Interest Rates:
	12/5/2025	11/28/2025
UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield	4.02%	4.14%
Germany 10 YR	2.81%	2.69%
Japan 10 YR	1.95%	1.81%
30 YR Mortgage	6.27%	6.25%
Oil	$60.23/ppb	$58.55/ppb
Regular Gas	$2.96/ppg	$3.01/ppg
All data as of Dec. 5, 2025

Sources:

¹ Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

² Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

³ Yahoo! Finance. “NASDAQ Composite (ˆIXIC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

⁴ CME Group. “FedWatch.” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

⁵ Bureau of Economic Analysis. Dec. 5, 2025. “Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2025. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

⁶ ADP Research. November 2025. “ADP® National Employment Report.” https://adpemploymentreport.com/. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

⁷ Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nov. 20, 2025. “The Employment Situation — September 2025.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

⁸ Diccon Hyatt. Investopedia. Oct. 29, 2025. “Fed Chair Powell Says December Interest Rate Cut Is ‘Far From’ Guaranteed.” https://www.investopedia.com/fed-chair-powell-throws-cold-water-on-future-rate-cut-expectations-11839757. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

⁹ John Butters. FactSet. Dec. 5, 2025. “Earnings Insight.” https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_120525.pdf. Accessed Dec. 7, 2025.

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