AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 3/22/26 – 3/28/26
Weekly Market Commentary
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: March 22-28, 2026
Mission not yet accomplished
As Operation Epic Fury enters its fifth week, we have yet to see the Iranian regime offer any type of openness to negotiating an end to the hostilities. We’re now several weeks past President Donald Trump’s call for an “unconditional surrender” of the Iranian regime.
The U.S. offered a 15-point proposal to end hostilities, which Iran rejected and countered with five demands of their own.1 Those were promptly rejected as well. President Trump halted operations for five days for negotiations and extended the deadline last Thursday for another 10 days to allow for more talks.
There are really more questions than answers right now. Who is in charge in Iran who can negotiate for the country? What happens if we negotiate a ceasefire? Will they abide by it, or will there be rogue elements that will continue to resist and cause mayhem? What does success look like — and can we achieve it only through bombing?
Despite being bereft of airplanes, air defenses and naval assets and having a significantly degraded missile capability, Iran still has a large standing army.2 And as long as the possibility of an oil tanker being blown up in the Strait of Hormuz exists (not a difficult task, considering how slow and lumbering they are), tankers will remain in port, and the world’s supply will be constricted.
Markets are looking at the situation and wondering what the end will look like and when it will happen. They’re also near correction territory (a 10% or more decline from the most recent record high). It wasn’t too long ago we were talking about the S&P 500 at 7,000 points; now we’re looking at 6,000 as a possibility.3 The Dow is similar: We hit 50,000 in early February, and now we’re trolling 45,000. 4
What’s the next step? With U.S. Marines and part of the 82nd Airborne on the scene, the next likely outcome would be to occupy Kharg Island and simultaneously begin destroying Iran’s infrastructure (the power grid, transportation and communications systems) beyond the military.5 Around 90% of Iran’s oil exports originate from Kharg, and shutting it down would put a stranglehold on Iran’s economy.
Turning the lights out in Iran would make the regime blind, while killing communications would make them mute and deaf. That may make the Iranian regime more likely to negotiate seriously. The unfortunate part is that the Iranian people would also suffer, especially if the regime tries to wait us out for several months. Waiting isn’t something the market does well, as the past four weeks have shown.
We’d like to say there is a light at the end of the tunnel, but after this week, there’s concern that we haven’t even reached the tunnel yet.
10-year Treasury and oil signaling trouble ahead
As we ended last week, the 10-year Treasury was at 4.44%, oil closed just under $100 per barrel and the volatility index was above 31.6,7,8 Plus, there’s the ongoing Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding debacle, which means TSA workers are going unpaid at our nation’s airports and snarling travel across the country.9
All this points to the beginnings of a self-inflicted recession. Unhappy and anxious people don’t make for good, steady spenders — and that’s what our economy needs. Without the revenue, companies begin to lose profitability, and everything rolls downhill from there. Job losses and unemployment, lower profits, home foreclosures and economic malaise (the four horsemen of the recession) are just around the corner.
This could all turn around quickly, but the longer we experience high oil prices, the grumpier people will get. Higher interest rates make borrowing costs more expensive, while geopolitical flux provides an undercurrent of uncertainty that erodes confidence that would lead to economic growth. We have to weather this storm and things will turn around, but we may be doing damage that cannot be quickly undone.
Coming this week
- Operation Epic Fury will continue driving the markets all week long.
- Fed speakers will be all over the place this week. It will be interesting to hear what they say about inflation from the higher price of oil versus a stumbling economy. Will they be in favor of cutting rates to help the economy and watch inflation get worse, or raising rates to hold prices down while the economy tumbles? That’s worth listening to this week.
- Data this week will include consumer confidence on Tuesday, which could continue to decline given higher gas prices. We’ll also see the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) number, which could reflect that jobs have begun to dry up, given the uncertain environment.
- On Wednesday, we’ll see retail sales, ADP jobs report for March and MBA mortgage applications.
- Thursday will feature weekly unemployment claims and the trade deficit.
- Finally, on Friday, we’ll get the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation for March. The monthly jobs number may be the only item this week that could compete with the hostilities in the Gulf for attention in the markets. Forecasts are calling for a rebound to +45,000 after last month’s dismal reading, and the unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 4.5%.10
Index Performance Returns % | |||||
| 1 WK | YTD | 1YR | 3YRS | 5YRS | |
| S&P 500® | -2.12% | -6.96% | 11.87% | 16.99% | 9.89% |
| NASDAQ | -3.23% | -9.87% | 17.66% | 21.19% | 9.87% |
| DJIA | -0.90% | -6.03% | 6.78% | 11.67% | 6.43% |
Interest Rates: | |||||
| 3/27/2026 | 3/20/2026 | ||||
| UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield | 4.43% | 4.40% | |||
| Germany 10 YR | 3.11% | 3.05% | |||
| Japan 10 YR | 2.39% | 2.32% | |||
| 30 YR Mortgage | 6.52% | 6.32% | |||
| Oil | $99.64/ppb | $98.24/ppb | |||
| Regular Gas | $3.98/ppg | $3.94/ppg | |||
| All data as of March 27, 2026. | |||||
Sources:
1 Bridget Brown, et al. AP. March 25, 2026. “Iran dismisses US ceasefire plan and issues its own counterproposal.” https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-03-25-2026. Accessed March 29, 2026.
2 Ari Cicurel. JINSA. March 5, 2026. “Iran’s Missile Firepower Has Almost Run Out.” https://jinsa.org/jinsa_report/irans-missile-firepower-has-almost-run-out/. Accessed March 29, 2026.
3 Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed March 29, 2026.
4 Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed March 29, 2026.
5 Alexander Smith. NBC News. March 25, 2026. “Why Trump may be eyeing Iran’s Kharg Island — and what that’s a risk.” https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/trump-may-eyeing-irans-kharg-island-risk-rcna264875. Accessed March 29, 2026.
6 CNBC. “U.S. 10 Year Treasury.” https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US.10. Accessed March 29, 2026.
7 Yahoo! Finance. “Crude Oil May 26 (CL=F).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/. Accessed March 29, 2026.
8 Yahoo! Finance. “CBOE Volatility Index (ˆVIX).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/. Accessed March 29, 2026.
9 Mike Lillis and Sudiksha Kochi. The Hill. March 27, 2026. “After rejecting Senate deal, House passes short-term DHS funding bill.” https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5805385-dhs-funding-stopgap-senate-deal/. Accessed March 29, 2026.
10 MarketWatch. “U.S. Economic Calendar.” https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar. Accessed March 29, 2026.
AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM) is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) located in Topeka, Kansas. Registration does not denote any level of skill or qualification. The advisory firm providing you this report is an independent financial services firm and is not an affiliate company of AE Wealth Management, LLC. AEWM works with a variety of independent advisors. Some of the advisors are Investment Adviser Representatives (IAR) who provide investment advisory services through AEWM. Some of the advisors are Registered Investment Advisers providing investment advisory services that incorporate some of the products available through AEWM.
Information regarding the RIA offering the investment advisory services can be found at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
The information and opinions contained herein, provided by third parties, have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by AE Wealth Management.
This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual’s situation. None of the information contained herein shall constitute an offer to sell or solicit any offer to buy a security or insurance product.
3/26 – 5002891-5