AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 3/29/26 – 4/4/26
Weekly Market Commentary
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: March 29 – April 4, 2026
Rough March tanks Q1, but quarter ends on an up note
The Iran conflict continued to dominate the headlines again last week, although the markets had a couple of strong days to close the first quarter and open the second. The Dow soared over 1,000 points on Tuesday, its best day since May of last year when we broke out of the tariff-induced panic sell-off.1
What was being called the “Hormuz Hope” relief rally stumbled a bit on Thursday as we ended the holiday-shortened week (markets were closed for Good Friday).2 President Trump gave a speech to the nation on Wednesday and didn’t answer the question about when Operation Epic Fury will end.3 Instead, we were treated to pretty much everything we already knew: Iran’s leadership has been decapitated, its air force and navy were destroyed, its missile capabilities were largely degraded and its ability to produce a nuclear weapon has been set so far back that it will not be able to produce any in the future.
There is talk of talk, but that has always been the case with Iran. Iranian officials are happy to “talk” while they refuse to give ground, concede or agree to anything. It feels like a one-way conversation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio gave the best summation so far, listing our four objectives:4
- The destruction of Iran’s air capabilities (done)
- The destruction of its naval assets (done)
- The destruction or severe degradation of its missile and drone assets (mostly done)
- Make it impossible for Iran to make weapons-grade uranium (maybe?)
The problem with the last point is it will need to be verified that Iran has no weapons-grade uranium and no means by which to enrich it. That would require people to go to Iran to check, which Iran will not allow. It feels like this will wind down in a week or two, and unfortunately, we will still have some for the current regime in Iran. They will lick their wounds and wait out this president until they feel they have a better situation for themselves in Washington.
In the meantime, there is nonsensical talk that Iran, as part of a ceasefire, wants international acknowledgment that it has sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz so it can charge a toll for ships to pass through. First, with regard to a ceasefire, that is largely a one-way street, since we are doing a lot of shooting and Iran is not. Second, the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway governed by international maritime law, so it cannot be given to Iran to charge tolls to sail through it.5
The Iranian regime acts as if it has equal footing, when in reality it does not. Sadly, several countries have paid a toll to Iran, which only emboldens it. Iran will continue to threaten the Strait as long as it can with whatever limited weapons it still has.
Recession worries mount
The volatility index (VIX) has declined from 31+ last Friday to a little over 24 — a good sign but still elevated.6 Oil has jumped to over $110 per barrel and continues to be hyper volatile.7 The 10-year Treasury has cooled a bit from 4.44% to 4.35%.8 Two of these things are slight improvements, but we are still flashing warning lights that, unless things settle quickly, there is a real chance we will stumble into a recession in the next few months.
We are also in a strange place where, thanks to elevated oil prices, the traditional relationship of moving to bonds for safety as equities decline doesn’t hold. The logic is as follows: Stocks go down because higher energy prices lead to lower demand, greater uncertainty and lower profits. Bond yields go up and bond prices drop because higher energy prices are viewed as inflationary. In other words, there is no place to hide in the traditional diversification sense, and the longer this drags out, the worse things will get. People will stop spending, companies will start laying off workers, people will begin defaulting on loans and the downward spiral will begin.
All this can still be avoided if hostilities end in the Gulf and oil retreats to end-of-2025 levels. How likely that is to happen is anyone’s guess, but the longer oil stays at these levels, the more likely we are to have a recession.
Coming this week
- We will continue waiting for Operation Epic Fury to end. Right now, markets are slightly hopeful that the Strait of Hormuz will be calm and Iran won’t attack ships. But not knowing what Iran will do will keep markets volatile all week long.
- Data will start on Tuesday with durable goods and consumer credit. Then activity will pick up on Wednesday with the release of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes and MBA mortgage applications.
- The action will really pick up on Thursday. We’ll see personal spending, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), the second revision of fourth-quarter 2025 gross domestic product (GDP), wholesale inventories and weekly unemployment claims.
- Friday will feature the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It might be too early for CPI to rise in response to much higher oil prices, but it will be a report worth watching for signs that higher energy costs are already being passed on to consumers. We will also get factory orders and consumer sentiment, which has been soft lately.
Index Performance Returns % | |||||
| 1 WK | YTD | 1YR | 3YRS | 5YRS | |
| S&P 500® | 1.63% | -3.84% | 16.08% | 17.01% | 10.37% |
| NASDAQ | 2.20% | -5.86% | 24.31% | 21.42% | 10.17% |
| DJIA | 1.18% | -3.24% | 10.13% | 11.81% | 7.00% |
Interest Rates: | |||||
| 4/3/2026 | 3/27/2026 | ||||
| UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield | 4.35% | 4.43% | |||
| Germany 10 YR | 3.00% | 3.11% | |||
| Japan 10 YR | 2.39% | 2.39% | |||
| 30 YR Mortgage | 6.51% | 6.52% | |||
| Oil | $114.35/ppb | $99.64/ppb | |||
| Regular Gas | $4.11/ppg | $3.98/ppg | |||
| All data as of April 3, 2026. | |||||
Sources:
1 Rian Howlett and Jake Conley. Yahoo! Finance. March 31, 2026. “Stock market today: Dow soars 1,000 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq surge in upbeat end to brutal quarter.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-soars-1000-points-sp-500-and-nasdaq-surge-in-upbeat-end-to-brutal-quarter-184154822.html. Accessed April 5, 2026.
2 Esther Luz. The Street. April 1, 2026. “The market is rallying on ‘Hormuz Hope,’ but the ‘frothy bull’ is behind us, fund managers say.” https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/the-market-is-rallying-on-hormuz-hope-but-the-frothy-bull-is-behind-us-fund-managers-say. Accessed April 5, 2026.
3 The White House. April 1, 2026. “President Trump Delivers Powerful Primetime Address on Operation Epic Fury.” https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/04/president-trump-delivers-powerful-primetime-address-on-operation-epic-fury/. Accessed April 5, 2026.
4 U.S. Department of State. March 30, 2026. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio with Hashem Ahelbarra of Al Jazeera.” https://www.state.gov/releases/office-of-the-spokesperson/2026/03/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-hashem-ahelbarra-of-al-jazeera. Accessed April 5, 2026.
5 Edmarverson A. Santos. D&L. “Iran’s Strait of Hormuz Closure Under International Law.” https://www.diplomacyandlaw.com/post/iran-s-strait-of-hormuz-closure-under-international-law. Accessed April 5, 2026.
6 Yahoo! Finance. “CBOE Volatility Index (ˆVIX).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/. Accessed April 5, 2026.
7 Yahoo! Finance. “Crude Oil May 26 (CL=F).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/. Accessed April 5, 2026.
8 CNBC. “U.S. 10 Year Treasury.” https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US.10. Accessed April 5, 2026.
AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM) is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) located in Topeka, Kansas. Registration does not denote any level of skill or qualification. The advisory firm providing you this report is an independent financial services firm and is not an affiliate company of AE Wealth Management, LLC. AEWM works with a variety of independent advisors. Some of the advisors are Investment Adviser Representatives (IAR) who provide investment advisory services through AEWM. Some of the advisors are Registered Investment Advisers providing investment advisory services that incorporate some of the products available through AEWM.
Information regarding the RIA offering the investment advisory services can be found at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
The information and opinions contained herein, provided by third parties, have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by AE Wealth Management.
This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual’s situation. None of the information contained herein shall constitute an offer to sell or solicit any offer to buy a security or insurance product.
4/26 – 5002899-1