AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 9/21/25 – 9/27/25
Weekly Market Commentary
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Sept. 21-27, 2025
How high can we go?
Markets have settled into a groove as we head into October and the fourth quarter. Volatility is under 16, one of the lowest levels this year.1 Markets are expecting two more 25-basis-point (0.25%) cuts by year-end after the Federal Reserve lowered rates for the first time in 2025 at its September meeting.2,3 The Magnificent Seven are back in fashion.4 Valuations for U.S. stocks are elevated, and inflation remains stubbornly stuck around 3%.5
All of this is happening as we enter a historically rough month for stocks. The whole setup seems like we’re headed toward something — but is it a bad something or a good something? Every year at this time, we seem to get dire predictions that October will be the harbinger of something bad. In reality, September has historically been the worst-performing month (-1% on average), yet this September has definitely not followed that trend.6
There is no reason to believe that just because the month changes, we should expect things to go drastically in the opposite direction. The S&P 500 is over 6,600, and we think we could get to 6,900-7,000 by the end of the year if things keep going the way they have been.7
Why do we think this? Because we’re optimistic. Inflation should eventually come closer to 2% from the current 2.9%. Fuel prices should remain low, companies should continue to post good earnings and the Fed should drop rates to 3.5% by the end of December.
There are pessimists who will counter that tariffs will eventually cause higher inflation and say the economy has stalled. (Although the third and final reading of second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%.8) They’ll also claim the Fed is cutting because a recession is around the corner.
Whatever side of the argument you’re on, just remember markets are going to market. They won’t do what you want them to do; they’ll do what they want to do. With that said, sentiment is pretty strong, and we are near all-time highs in the markets.
If you have money to put to work, that doesn’t mean you should jump into the current environment with both feet. Instead, it might be a good idea to wait until the market pulls back a bit and use a reverse dollar-cost averaging approach. Then you can deploy new money a bit more strategically.
Of course, no one knows your plans and goals better than you and your advisor. If you’re concerned about the current environment, schedule some time to do an investment check with your advisor.
Trump seals TikTok deal
The deal is finally done! (Or at least President Donald Trump has signed an executive order approving terms.) The U.S. and China have reportedly reached a framework deal to sell TikTok days before it was supposed to be banned here in the U.S.9 The details are still scant, but it sounds like the deal is scheduled to be finalized in early 2026.
U.S. investors in the $14 billion deal include Oracle and Silver Lakes.10 How this all plays out is anyone’s guess and there is much more to be done but getting control of TikTok and hopefully mitigating its influence by a foreign power is a starting point. Now we need to hammer out a broader deal with China.
Coming this week
- This week will be all about jobs. If we see a rebound in job growth, markets will process it in one of two ways: 1) If it’s too strong, the markets will begin to fret that the Fed will pause rate cuts, or 2) If it’s in the +75,000 to +100,000 range, the market will think the economy and jobs are weaker but still plodding along. If the number is really weak, the market will be consumed with recession fears. The problem with the jobs report is that there has been a turnover in leadership at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and there are some trust issues. It may take a while for people to get comfortable with the data again.
- A potential government shutdown could cause some volatility this week.11
- Fed speakers will be making the rounds again all week. Based on comments from last week, it appears anyone who was in proximity to the Fed meeting seems to have an opinion about where rates should go. Increasingly, the rhetoric shows a deeply divided Fed that seems far from being “independent.”
- Data this week includes pending home sales on Monday, then the Case-Shiller home price index, consumer confidence and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary on Tuesday.
- Wednesday will feature MBA mortgage applications and auto sales, plus the ADP employment report. Weekly unemployment claims will follow on Thursday.
- Finally, we’ll see the BLS employment report (non-farm payrolls) on Friday and the latest unemployment rate.
Index Performance Returns % | |||||
| 1 WK | YTD | 1YR | 3YRS | 5YRS | |
| S&P 500 | -0.31% | 12.96%% | 15.64% | 22.04% | 15.03% |
| NASDAQ | -0.65% | 16.43% | 23.60% | 27.68% | 15.55% |
| DJIA | -0.15% | 8.70% | 9.66% | 16.48% | 11.22% |
Interest Rates: | |||||
| 9/26/2025 | 9/19/2025 | ||||
| UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield | 4.18% | 4.14% | |||
| Germany 10 YR | 2.75% | 2.75% | |||
| Japan 10 YR | 1.65% | 1.64% | |||
| 30 YR Mortgage | 6.33% | 6.23% | |||
| Oil | $65.18/ppb | $62.52/ppb | |||
| Regular Gas | $3.13/ppg | $3.18/ppg | |||
| All data as of Sept. 26, 2025 | |||||
Sources:
1 Yahoo! Finance. “CBOE Volatility Index (ˆVIX).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
2 CME Group. “FedWatch.” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
3 Jeff Cox. CNBC. Sept. 17, 2025. “Fed approves quarter-point interest rate cut and sees two more coming this year.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/fed-rate-decision-september-2025.html. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
4 Cedric Thompson. Investopedia. Aug. 29, 2025. “Magnificent 7 Stocks: What You Need to Know.” https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-seven-stocks-8402262. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
5 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sept. 11, 2025. “Consumer Price Index Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
6 Isabel Wang. Morningstar. Sept. 1, 2025. “September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. Why this time could be different.” https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2025090155/september-is-historically-the-worst-month-of-the-year-for-stocks-why-this-time-could-be-different. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
7 Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
8 Bureau of Economic Analysis. Sept. 25, 2025. “Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Third Estimate), GDP by Industry, Corporate Profits (Revised,) and Annual Update.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quarter-2025-third-estimate-gdp-industry-corporate-profits. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
9 Angela Yang and Savannah Sellers. NBC News. Sept. 25, 2025. “Trump signs executive order facilitating TikTok deal.” https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/trump-signs-executive-order-tiktok-deal-know-rcna233518. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
10 Dan Whateley and Sydney Bradley. Business Insider. Sept. 26, 2025. “Here’s what we know about who’s buying TikTok’s US business.” https://www.businessinsider.com/who-could-take-over-tiktok-us-business-investors-oracle-ellison-2025-9. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
11 Maureen Chowdhury and Matt Meyer. CNN. Sept. 28, 2025. “The latest on the Trump administration as government shutdown looms.” https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-administration-government-shutdown-09-28-25. Accessed Sept. 28, 2025.
AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM) is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) located in Topeka, Kansas. Registration does not denote any level of skill or qualification. The advisory firm providing you this report is an independent financial services firm and is not an affiliate company of AE Wealth Management, LLC. AEWM works with a variety of independent advisors. Some of the advisors are Investment Adviser Representatives (IAR) who provide investment advisory services through AEWM. Some of the advisors are Registered Investment Advisers providing investment advisory services that incorporate some of the products available through AEWM.
Information regarding the RIA offering the investment advisory services can be found at https://brokercheck.finra.org/.
Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.
The information and opinions contained herein, provided by third parties, have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by AE Wealth Management.
This information is not intended to be used as the sole basis for financial decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the particular needs of an individual’s situation. None of the information contained herein shall constitute an offer to sell or solicit any offer to buy a security or insurance product.