AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 4/12/26-4/18/26
Weekly Market Commentary
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: April 12-18, 2026
Records are back — and so is some relief
It might have sounded unthinkable last week when we said new record highs were just around the corner. Well, here they are.
The S&P 500 officially entered its 7,000 era, surging 4.5% last week and notching three new record highs along the way for its best weekly performance in a year.1 The Dow also ended just under 50,000 and the Nasdaq pushed closer to 25,000.2,3 All of this, and we’ve now fully recovered everything lost from the March 30 lows. Not bad for a few weeks of white-knuckling it.
The catalyst was Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is fully open for commercial tankers carrying oil from the Persian Gulf to customers worldwide.4 Stocks raced to another record on the news, while oil prices responded immediately by dropping back toward levels seen in the early days of the conflict.5 The volatility index (VIX) — Wall Street’s so-called “fear gauge” — closed Friday at 17.48, well back within the range we saw earlier in the year.6
The Strait of Hormuz situation is a bit like your GPS rerouting you mid-trip: You’re moving again, but you’re not totally sure where you’re headed. Iran declared the Strait “completely open” for commercial traffic but announced it was closed again early Saturday until the U.S. lifts the blockade on Iranian ports.7 Does this end with a handshake, a stalemate or another twist nobody sees coming? Your guess is as good as ours. Markets will keep reacting to every headline, so stay buckled up.
Inflation, the Fed and a leadership fight worth watching
The March Producer Price Index (PPI) number came in at a year-over-year reading of 4.0%, the largest 12-month gain since February 2023.8 Energy was the primary culprit, with gasoline up 15.7% and diesel surging 42%, both tied directly to the Iran conflict. Services inflation was flat, which is the number the Fed watches most closely.
Still, components feeding into the Fed’s preferred gauge (namely the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index) showed more firmness, with March PCE estimated to run around 3.1% annually for headline and 3.5% for core.9 Prices have a habit of climbing fast and coming down slowly, so expect inflation to stay in the headlines for a while.
That means the Federal Reserve is likely to sit on its hands during its next meeting April 28-29. With inflation still elevated and the economic picture murky, rate cuts likely aren’t coming anytime soon. The Fed needs much more clarity on tariffs, energy prices and consumer spending before it moves in any direction.
Add to that a leadership fight that could shake markets in the near term. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term expires May 15, and his would-be successor, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is stuck in Senate limbo.10 (Senator Thom Tillis has said he won’t vote to confirm Warsh until the Justice Department’s criminal probe into the Fed’s renovation project is resolved.)
Last week, Trump threatened to fire Powell if he doesn’t leave when his term expires, while Powell has said he isn’t going anywhere until the investigation concludes.11 The Senate Banking Committee has a confirmation hearing for Warsh scheduled for April 21, so the next week or two should be revealing. Markets don’t love central bank uncertainty — and right now, there’s plenty of it.
Coming this week
- Markets will continue to react to headlines about conflict in the Middle East all week.
- Data will start on Tuesday, with U.S. retail sales, business inventories and pending home sales.
- No data is scheduled for Wednesday. Thursday we’ll see weekly initial jobless claims plus the latest Manufacturing PMI numbers.
- We’ll end the week with consumer sentiment on Friday.
Index Performance Returns % | |||||
| 1 WK | YTD | 1YR | 3YRS | 5YRS | |
| S&P 500® | 4.54% | 4.10% | 34.89% | 19.73% | 11.23% |
| NASDAQ | 6.84% | 5.28% | 50.24% | 26.26% | 11.73% |
| DJIA | 3.19% | 2.88% | 26.33% | 13.31% | 7.65% |
Interest Rates: | |||||
| 4/17/2026 | 4/10/2026 | ||||
| UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield | 4.25% | 4.32% | |||
| Germany 10 YR | 2.97% | 3.05% | |||
| Japan 10 YR | 2.42% | 2.44% | |||
| 30 YR Mortgage | 6.34% | 6.41% | |||
| Oil | $83.85/ppb | $96.57/ppb | |||
| Regular Gas | $4.06/ppg | $4.13/ppg | |||
| All data as of April 17, 2026. | |||||
Sources:
1 Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed April 18, 2026.
2 Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed April 18, 2026.
3 Yahoo! Finance. “NASDAQ Composite (ˆIXIC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/. Accessed April 18, 2026.
4 Greg Norman-Diamond, et al. Fox News. April 18, 2026. “Trump says Strait of Hormuz ‘completely open’ as US blockade on Iranian ports continues.” https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/trump-iran-us-war-israel-lebanon-ceasefire-strait-hormuz-blockade-april-17. Accessed April 18, 2026.
5 Yahoo! Finance. “Crude Oil May 26 (CL=F).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/. Accessed April 18, 2026.
6 Yahoo! Finance. “CBOE Volatility Index (ˆVIX).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX/. Accessed April 18, 2026.
7 Azhar Sukri, Spencer Kimball and Terri Cullen. CNBC. April 18, 2026. “Iran says Strait of Hormuz is closed again as vessels attempting to cross come under fire.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/18/trump-says-us-has-good-news-on-iran-talks-to-continue.html. Accessed April 18, 2026.
8 Bureau of Labor Statistics. April 14, 2026. “Producer Price Indexes – March 2026.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf. Accessed April 18, 2026.
9 Mike (Mish) Shedlock. Investing.com. April 14, 2026. “Fed Study Shows Tariffs Boosted Goods Inflation by a Cumulative 3.1%.” https://www.investing.com/analysis/fed-study-shows-tariffs-boosted-goods-inflation-by-a-cumulative-31-200678366. Accessed April 18, 2026.
10 Shaun Pruitt. Yahoo! Finance. April 16, 2026. “What to Know as Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Nomination Hearing Gets Delayed.” https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/know-kevin-warshs-fed-chair-223600820.html. Accessed April 18, 2026.
11 Jeff Cox. CNBC. April 15, 2026. “Trump threatens to fire Powell if the Fed chair doesn’t leave office on his own.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/trump-threatens-to-fire-powell-if-the-fed-chair-doesnt-leave-office-on-his-own.html. Accessed April 18, 2026.
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