AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 8/30/26 – 9/5/26

Weekly Market Commentary

THE WEEK IN REVIEW: Aug. 30-Sept. 5, 2026

It feels like we’ve seen this before

After a month of relative quiet, the U.S. pounded Iran again after Iran fired on U.S. personnel, U.S. allies and multi-national ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.¹ This predictably pushed up oil prices, and yields and stocks moved lower as we started the week.

Markets settled down despite higher oil prices as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) popped back over $90 per barrel.² Brent North Sea crude (the Dom Perignon of oil and always more expensive than WTI) topped $95 per barrel.³ Regardless of how you slice it, $90 or $95 per barrel isn’t good for world economies.

It does seem coincidental that as soon as President Donald Trump announced the biggest oil deal in world history, we saw a ramp up in hostilities that sent oil prices higher.⁴ Who knows what will come of this oil deal and how it may take to see meaningful results at the pump, but right now markets aren’t impressed. After a three-day losing streak, markets bounced back last Wednesday and Thursday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury 10-Year Note cooled after the yield crested 4.80% as investors decided the Federal Reserve would probably stay put with rates at its meeting later this month following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.^5,6 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s fairly hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in late August had led to fears the Fed might move in September.⁷ And it still might (especially with the most recent jobs report) based on what upcoming inflation numbers look like.

The markets calmed for the time being, and we’re still at lofty levels despite all the gyrations. The S&P 500 keeps inching up toward 8,000; the index is only a few points away from another record and is returning nearly 13% so far this year.⁸ The Dow is in great shape, too, not far off recent highs at the beginning of last month and returning over 11% for 2026.⁹ The Nasdaq, the wildest of the three broad U.S. indices, is closing in on its June highs and appears to have weathered the storm pretty well, despite the on-again, off-again AI and Big Tech trade.¹⁰

Markets retreated on Friday heading into the holiday weekend, because the stronger-than-expected jobs number stirred rate hike concerns (more below). Despite all the turmoil, this year is yet another example of markets doing what markets do and a demonstration of their optimistic nature. There have been ample opportunities to get pessimistic this year, and there will likely be more, but we’re in this for the long term — and in the long term, markets can work for you with planning and discipline.

Jobs bounce back and the participation trophy is handed out

The August jobs number surprised to the upside. Expectations were for around +56,000, and in actuality, the number was +162,000.¹¹ Is this the start of the trend? Probably not. We were disappointed last month, which was revised from -23,000 to +21,000 for July. Now the discussion is revolving around growth in manufacturing and construction jobs, thanks to data center construction and the growth in the hospitality sector. It’s a great story, but it remains to be seen if it will play.

Job growth hasn’t been as robust as in the past, although the unemployment rate remains at 4.1%.¹² We still have a depressed worker participation rate, and wage growth is lagging inflation, thanks to higher gas prices. This strong jobs number boosts the case for the Fed to raise (not lower) rates, because if jobs are as strong as this report indicates, then the Fed will focus on inflation. Once again, for markets, this is a “good news is bad news” scenario, since it makes the case for a rate hike rather than a cut.

There has been much talk surrounding the “low fire, low hire” nature of this job market. But something seems odd. Job openings, as reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), rose from 7.18 million to 7.27 million.¹³ We have a ton of job openings, but job growth and the participation rate aren’t back to pre-pandemic levels.

Coming this week

• Markets were closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Tuesday and Wednesday will also be fairly quiet, with the NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism and Consumer Credit on Tuesday and MBA mortgage applications on Wednesday.
• Thursday will feature the usual weekly unemployment claims plus the producer price index (PPI). PPI is expected to increase to 5.3%, driven mostly by higher energy prices.¹⁴ Core consumer price index (CPI) is expected to rise only slightly because energy and food are stripped out.
• We’ll end the week with the CPI. Current expectations are for CPI to remain at 3.4%, while Core CPI is expected to dip. The University of Michigan consumer survey is also scheduled for Friday and expected to be flat from last month.

Sources:

¹ Greg Iacurci. CNBC. Sept. 7, 2026. “Oil prices rise to 6-week high after Iran and U.S. trade blows, Saudi Aramco facilities reportedly hit.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/07/oil-prices-rise-to-6-week-high-after-iran-and-us-trade-blows-saudi-aramco-facilities-reportedly-hit.html. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

² Business Insider. “Oil (WTI).” https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

³ Trading Economics. “Brent oil.” https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

⁴ The White House. Aug. 31, 2026. “Fact sheet: President Donald J. Trump Announces Historic Oil Agreement to Secure American Energy Dominance and Drive Venezuela’s Economic Recovery.” https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-historic-oil-agreement-to-secure-american-energy-dominance-and-drive-venezuelas-economic-recovery/. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

⁵ CNBC. “U.S. 10 Year Treasury.” https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US.10. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

⁶ Governor Christopher J. Waller. Federal Reserve. Sept. 3, 2026. “The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20260903a.htm. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

⁷ Chairman Kevin Warsh. Federal Reserve. Aug. 28, 2026. “In Our Time.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

⁸ Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

⁹ Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

¹⁰ Yahoo! Finance. “NASDAQ Composite (ˆIXIC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

¹¹ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sept. 4, 2026. “Employment Situation Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

¹² Trading Economics. “United States Employment Rate.” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

¹³ U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sept. 1, 2026. “Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

¹⁴ MarketWatch. “U.S. Economic Calendar.” https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar. Accessed Sept. 7, 2026.

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