AE Wealth Management Quarterly Market Report for Q1 2026

The first quarter of 2026 will be remembered as one of the most eventful in recent memory. Markets entered the year on a high note, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average approaching milestone levels.^1,2

The optimism didn’t last long. Over just three months, investors navigated Federal Reserve policy drama, a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, a partial funding standoff in Congress and a significant U.S. military operation in the Middle East. By quarter’s end, markets had erased all of their early 2026 gains and then some.

A Strong Start

The quarter opened with genuine momentum. The S&P 500 was closing in on 7,000 points, while the Dow approached the 50,000 mark. This reflected investor expectations that the economy would rebound after the government shutdown that disrupted the final months of 2025.

An early geopolitical development rattled markets when the U.S. ordered the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, who had been accused of harboring narco-terrorists and facilitating drug trafficking into the United States.³ Markets regained their footing and resumed their climb, with the S&P 500 briefly topping 7,000 in intraday trading and the Dow breaking through the 50,000 threshold for the first time.^4,5

Fed Policy and Political Pressure

As the quarter progressed, warning signs began to surface. The labor market was showing signs of softening while inflation remained elevated. Against that backdrop, the Fed met in January and decided to suspend its rate-cutting cycle, citing persistent inflation amid a still-stable jobs market.⁶

Markets did not respond well to the Fed’s pause. Adding to the tension, President Trump publicly pressed for lower rates. The administration also opened an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s management of spending on new Fed facilities, prompting an unusual public defense from Powell.⁷

The situation escalated further when President Trump named Kevin Warsh as Powell’s successor, effective in May.⁸ Markets ultimately absorbed the news by concluding that rate cuts were unlikely before the second half of the year, with Powell effectively serving as a lame-duck Fed chair in the interim.

Rotation and Volatility

With rate cut expectations pushed further out, markets shifted into what analysts referred to as “the Great Rotation.” Investors moved away from AI and large-cap technology stocks (widely seen as overvalued) and rotated into broader large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap equities. The shift introduced a sustained period of volatility even as the overall market initially held near its highs.

At the same time, Congress avoided a second government shutdown by reaching a partial funding agreement, but a dispute over funding for the Department of Homeland Security left full government funding unresolved.⁹ The standoff ultimately contributed to the removal of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.¹⁰

Economic Data Disappoints

Employment data weakened over the quarter, and inflation remained stubbornly elevated. Fourth-quarter 2025 gross domestic product (GDP) initially came in at a weak 1.4% and was revised further downward to 0.7%.¹¹ The combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation raised the prospect of stagflation — a challenging environment for both investors and policymakers.

A further complication arrived in February when the Supreme Court ruled President Trump lacked authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs.¹² The administration quickly reassembled a similar tariff structure through alternative mechanisms, but the legal uncertainty reignited market anxieties and produced another period of turbulence.

Geopolitical Shock Erases Gains

The most significant market event of the first quarter came on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a military offensive targeting Iran’s top leadership.¹³ The operation continued throughout the month of March.

The near-term impact was swift and severe. Oil prices surged from the $60-per-barrel range to more than $100 per barrel, and equity markets fell sharply as volatility spiked. National gas prices rose significantly almost overnight, as Iran’s proximity to major oil production and shipping routes amplified the potential disruption to global energy markets.¹⁴

By quarter’s end, markets had given back all of their 2026 gains.

Equity Performance as of March. 31, 2025

Sources:
https://www.morningstar.com/indexes/spi/spx/quote
https://www.morningstar.com/indexes/xnas/@cco/quote
https://www.morningstar.com/indexes/dji/!dji/quote

Looking Ahead

How the situation in the Middle East unfolds will likely be the single biggest variable for markets in the second quarter. A swift resolution could support a meaningful rally, as investors would refocus on corporate earnings, valuations and the prospect of resumed Fed rate cuts. A prolonged conflict, on the other hand, would likely keep energy prices elevated and maintain pressure on inflation.

The Fed’s next steps will be closely watched. With inflation still above the 2% target and GDP growth slowing, policymakers face a difficult set of trade-offs.¹⁵ Incoming data on employment and consumer spending will play a significant role in shaping rate expectations heading into the summer. The transition to a new Fed chair in May adds another layer of uncertainty for markets to absorb.

Regardless of how these dynamics play out, the principles that served investors well throughout a turbulent first quarter remain relevant: maintaining a diversified portfolio, avoiding reactive decisions based on short-term headlines and staying aligned with your long-term financial plan. If you have questions about how recent events may affect your portfolio, this is a good time to connect with your financial advisor and confirm your plan is still on track.

Sources

¹ Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed March 23, 2026.

² Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed March 23, 2026.

³ Congress.gov. Jan. 12, 2026. “U.S. Capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro: Considerations for Congress.” https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12618. Accessed March 23, 2026.

⁴ Nauman Khan. Yahoo! Finance. Jan. 29, 2026. “S&P 500 Hits 7,000 for the First Time Ever.” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-hits-7-000-115232708.html. Accessed March 23, 2026.

⁵ John Towfighi. CNN. Feb. 6, 2026. “Stocks hit historic milestone as Dow crosses 50,000 points for first time ever.” https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/06/investing/dow-index-us-stocks-50k. Accessed March 23, 2026.

⁶ Federal Reserve. Jan. 28, 2026. “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm. Accessed March 23, 2026.

⁷ Steve Kopack, Allie Canal and Shannon Pettypiece. NBC News. Jan. 12, 2026. “The $2.5 billion renovation at the center of the DOJ’s criminal investigation of the Federal Reserve.” https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/25-billion-renovation-center-dojs-criminal-investigation-federal-reser-rcna253540. Accessed March 23, 2026.

⁸ Texas Bankers Association. Feb. 2, 2026. “Trump nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.” https://www.texasbankers.com/trump-nominates-kevin-warsh-as-fed-chair/. Accessed March 23, 2026.

⁹ Jennifer Scholtes, Jordain Carney and Katherine Tully-McManus. Politico. March 23, 2026. “Pressure builds on Congress as DHS shutdown threatens to drag into April.” https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/23/dhs-shutdown-deal-pressure-00839528. Accessed March 23, 2026.

¹⁰ Ximena Bustillo. NPR. March 5, 2026. “Trump fires Kristi Noem as DHS chief, names Sen. Markwayne Mullin to replace her.” https://www.npr.org/2026/03/05/nx-s1-5667546/kristi-noem-homeland-security-fired. Accessed March 23, 2026.

¹¹ Bureau of Economic Analysis. March 13, 2026. “GDP (Second Estimate), 4^th Quarter and Year 2025.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025. Accessed March 23, 2026.

¹² Amy Howe. SCOTUSblog. Feb. 20, 2026. “Supreme Court strikes down tariffs.” https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/02/supreme-court-strikes-down-tariffs/. Accessed March 23, 2026.

¹³ U.S. Central Command. Feb. 28, 2026. “U.S. Forces Launch Operation Epic Fury.” https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4418396/us-forces-launch-operation-epic-fury/. Accessed March 23, 2026.

¹⁴ AAA. “Fuel Prices.” https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Accessed March 23, 2026.

¹⁵ Trading Economics. “United States Inflation Rate.” https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi. Accessed March 23, 2026.

AE Wealth Management, LLC (AEWM) is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser (RIA) located in Topeka, Kansas. Registration does not denote any level of skill or qualification. The advisory firm providing you this report is an independent financial services firm and is not an affiliate company of AE Wealth Management, LLC. AEWM works with a variety of independent advisors. Some of the advisors are Investment Adviser Representatives (IAR) who provide investment advisory services through AEWM. Some of the advisors are Registered Investment Advisers providing investment advisory services that incorporate some of the products available through AEWM.

Information regarding the RIA offering the investment advisory services can be found at https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/.

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The information and opinions contained herein, provided by third parties, have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed by AE Wealth Management.

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