AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 6/21/26-6/27/26
Weekly Market Commentary
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: June 21-27, 2026
Oil flows, drones fly
Talks between the U.S. and Iran continue after signing a memorandum of understanding, but there are visible signs that the conflict is far from over, and it appears we’re back where we were a few weeks ago.1 Iran is still shooting at its neighbors and attacking shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, while we respond with specific targeted strikes.
The problem with the current setup is that even a mild escalation can send oil prices higher, which is a win for Iran. And the longer this continues, the less likely oil will decline, even though we ended Friday with oil prices just above the levels they were at when the conflict started.2
The Iranian regime is waging a delaying tactic at the negotiating table while going on the offensive on the economic front and seems to be assuming we will get bored, leave and allow their current leadership to remain in power. They also seem to be hoping our economy will tip into recession, causing us to focus inward and forget about them.
So far, that doesn’t seem to be the case. First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised upward to +2.1% last week, better than the initial reports of +1.6%.3 People are still spending, and the economy has weathered higher oil prices and inflation.
AI and big tech drag markets down
Markets had a rough week, posting early gains at the beginning of each day only to slide downward as the trading day came to an end. A bevy of concerns roiled the markets, but primarily it was the global sell-off of tech stocks amid mounting concerns over the rising cost of AI infrastructure.
We’ve seen this before: Big tech makes big promises, and the market runs with it, then realizes it has run too far and gives some of its gains back. For the tech-heavy Nasdaq, that turned out to be a result of -4.6% last week.4 The S&P 500 fared somewhat better but still declined by 1.95%.5
The Dow, with the smallest number of constituents of the three major indices, didn’t suffer at all and actually came out ahead in the hectic up-and-down week.6 A lot of that is because the makeup of the Dow (only 30 stocks) organically gives it less exposure to tech. However, that changed last week: Verizon was removed from the Dow and replaced by Google parent Alphabet, making the index less insulated from big tech’s wild gyrations than it used to be.7
The other news weighing on markets last week was the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) reading, which confirmed inflation was still climbing.8 PCE came in at 4.1% versus 3.8% in May, while Core PCE rose from 3.3% to 3.4%. Both numbers are well above the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation target of 2%.
Personal spending was up, which some cheered, but if prices go up, people tend to spend more but not necessarily buy more.9 The problem for the market is that a high PCE reading pretty much sets the Fed on a rate-tightening (instead of a rate-cutting) path, which will make borrowing more expensive. The companies that suffer the most when that happens are usually tech companies that rely on borrowing until their products pan out and become profitable. If borrowing costs go up, then whatever nosebleed valuations the markets put on those companies have to be reevaluated and sell-offs ensue.
Markets also reacted to the revised GDP covered in the section above. Our economy isn’t bad; it’s just not great — and if we’re told to expect great and get “meh,” at some point it will impact the psychology of the consumer and the investor.
Coming this week
- This will be a short trading week with markets closed on Friday, July 3. Trading will likely slow to a trickle on Thursday as Wall Street heads off for the long weekend. We will be celebrating the 250th anniversary of our nation’s birth. Happy birthday, USA!
- Data will start on Tuesday, when we’ll see the Case-Shiller home price index and consumer confidence. We’ll also get the JOLTS job openings survey for May.
- On Wednesday, we’ll get the latest ADP employment report and MBA mortgage applications.
- Finally, Thursday will feature the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly labor report. Consensus is calling for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.3% and for wage growth to remain flat, while new jobs are expected to increase but not as much as last month.10
Index Performance Returns % | |||||
| 1 WK | YTD | 1YR | 3YRS | 5YRS | |
| S&P 500® | -1.95% | 7.43% | 19.75% | 19.31% | 11.43% |
| NASDAQ | -4.60% | 8.84% | 25.44% | 23.79% | 11.99% |
| DJIA | 0.60% | 7.93% | 19.57% | 15.45% | 8.54% |
Interest Rates: | |||||
| 6/26/2026 | 6/19/2026 | ||||
| UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield | 4.38% | 4.50% | |||
| Germany 10 YR | 2.85% | 2.99% | |||
| Japan 10 YR | 2.61% | 2.68% | |||
| 30 YR Mortgage | 6.56% | 6.48% | |||
| Oil | $69.23/ppb | $77.49/ppb | |||
| Regular Gas | $3.87/ppg | $3.94/ppg | |||
| All data as of June 26, 2026. | |||||
Sources:
1 Jon Gambrell and Melanie Lidman. PBS. June 28, 2026. “Iran attacks Bahrain and Kuwait following U.S. strikes and threatens to halt talks.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-attacks-bahrain-and-kuwait-following-u-s-strikes-and-threatens-to-halt-talks. Accessed June 28, 2026.
2 Business Insider. “Oil (WTI).” https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti. Accessed June 28, 2026.
3 Bureau of Economic Analysis. June 25, 2026. “GDP (Third Estimate), Industries, Corporate Profits, State GDP, and State Personal Income, 1st Quarter 2026.” https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-06/gdp1q26-3rd.pdf. Accessed June 28, 2026.
4 Yahoo! Finance. “NASDAQ Composite (ˆIXIC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC/. Accessed June 28, 2026.
5 Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed June 28, 2026.
6 Yahoo! Finance. “Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/. Accessed June 28, 2026.
7 Hillary Remy. The Street. June 27, 2026. “Google just took crown Verizon held for 22 years.” https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/sp-dow-jones-remove-verizon-replace-alphabet. Accessed June 28, 2026.
8 Bureau of Economic Analysis. June 25, 2026. “Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2026. Accessed June 28, 2026.
9 Jim Tyson. CFO Dive. June 25, 2026. “Consumer spending rises as inflation speeds up to three-year high.” https://www.cfodive.com/news/consumer-spending-rises-inflation-speeds-up-three-year-high/823825/. Accessed June 28, 2026.
10 MarketWatch. “This Week’s Major U.S. Economic Reports & Fed Speakers.” https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar. Accessed June 28, 2026.
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