AE Wealth Management: Market Minute — Markets under pressure from jobs miss and oil spike
Markets under pressure from jobs miss and oil spike
Two big stories drove market volatility on Friday, March 6. And they’re pulling the Federal Reserve in opposite directions.
First, jobs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics February employment report came in far below expectation.1 Consensus was for +60,000 new jobs; the actual number was -92,000. Last month’s reading was also revised downward from 130,000 to 126,000. It’s a signal the labor market may be softening faster than anticipated and a data point the Fed can’t ignore.
Under normal circumstances, a weak jobs report would be welcome news for investors, since soft employment data would put pressure on the Fed to cut rates. But circumstances aren’t normal right now.
The ongoing conflict with Iran has sent oil prices sharply higher. Crude oil was trading near $60 per barrel in mid-February; it rose to ~$90 per barrel by midday Friday.2 That kind of spike in energy costs feeds directly into inflation at the gas pump, in shipping costs and throughout the supply chain.
If oil prices stay elevated, the Fed faces a difficult choice: cut rates to support a weakening jobs market or hold rates steady to keep inflation from reigniting. The Fed is effectively stuck between a rock and a hard place, and markets don’t like that kind of uncertainty.
What history tells us
Geopolitical events, including military conflicts, have historically caused short-term market disruptions, but markets have generally recovered over the longer term. Here’s a look at S&P 500 returns following significant geopolitical events:3
| Geopolitical/Military Events | S&P 500 Index Price Return (%) | ||||
| Event (Start Date) | Annualized | ||||
| 3 Months Later | 1 Year Later | 3 Years Later | 5 Years Later | 10 Years Later | |
| Pearl Harbor Attack (Dec. 1941) | -12.4% | 0.4% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 9.6% |
| Cuban Missile Crisis (Oct. 1962) | 17.4% | 32.0% | 18.3% | 11.4% | 7.0% |
| Arab Oil Embargo (Oct. 1973) | -13.2% | -36.2% | -2.9% | -1.4% | 4.4% |
| U.S. Bombs Libya (April 1986) | -0.5% | 19.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 10.5% |
| Iraq Invades Kuwait (Aug. 1990) | -10.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 15.1% |
| 9/11 Attacks (Sept. 2001) | 2.5% | -16.7% | 0.9% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Russia Invades Ukraine (Feb. 2022) | -13.0% | -11.0% | 9.5% | — | — |
It’s not uncommon for investors to move to safety after significant military actions or geopolitical events. That’s what’s happening here. Markets were near record highs when the Iran conflict escalated, and some of today’s selling reflects investors taking profits and waiting out the most recent conflict.
What this means for you
Situations like this are exactly why having a financial plan matters. The unknowns are real, but reacting to them does more damage than the event itself. A few reminders:
- Crises typically cause a temporary spike in oil prices, but those spikes tend to moderate once the situation stabilizes.4
- The labor market bears watching. One bad report isn’t a trend, but it’s worth discussing with your advisor, especially if your plan is sensitive to rate changes.
- Your portfolio was built with volatility in mind. If your circumstances haven’t fundamentally changed, your plan likely hasn’t either.
We’re monitoring the situation closely. Please reach out to your advisor if you have questions or want to review how current conditions fit within your long-term strategy.
Sources:
1 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. March 6, 2026. “Employment Situation Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm. Accessed March 6, 2026.
2 Yahoo! Finance. “Crude Oil Apr 26 (CL=F).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL=F/. Accessed March 6, 2026.
3 Hartford Funds. 2026. “Military Conflicts May Rattle Markets, But Not For Long.” https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/military-conflicts-may-rattle-markets-but-not-for-long.html. Accessed March 6, 2026.
4 Andrea Riquier. USA Today. March 1, 2026. “Oil prices likely to top $90 after Iran strikes, but retreat afterward.” https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/energy/2026/03/01/oil-prices-rise-after-iran-strikes/88934379007/. Accessed March 6, 2026.
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