AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 5/24/26-5/30/26
Weekly Market Commentary
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: May 24-30, 2026
Are markets sensing the end with the Iran crisis?
Markets ripped again last week. Despite persistent and climbing inflation readings (more in the section below), markets rallied to new highs, oil prices declined and yields eased from increasingly alarming levels.1
It’s almost as if the markets know something we don’t, like this Iran crisis is going to end. There has been constant talk of imminent deals with nothing to show for it, and we still have a ceasefire with a lot of firing going on.2
There’s been talk that President Trump has reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire to negotiate further, which he had yet to approve as we closed out last week.3 It increasingly looks like there will be some kind of deal, but it doesn’t feel like we’re pursuing a very effective strategy at this point.
Given the way markets are behaving, it feels like the crisis is quickly moving off the front burner. Oil has dropped to $90 per barrel after rising to $113 in early April, which definitely isn’t a sign the situation is getting worse.4 The 10-year Treasury had climbed to 4.66% on May 18 but has come down to 4.47% — another signal the situation is improving.5
Markets also seemed to ignore elevated inflation data; with the improvements mentioned above, the vibe is that inflation will come down sooner rather than later. All this can go sideways quickly, but right now the markets seem to think this thing is over.
Inflation increases across the board
After seeing a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI) and now Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), all three are aligned and not in a good way.
CPI came in at a 3.8% increase.6 PPI rose 6.0% at the last reading, which is concerning because PPI is at the front to middle of the pricing pipeline, and we haven’t seen the full impact on the consumer or end user yet.7 How long can producers sit on higher material and energy costs before they pass them on to the rest of us?
April PCE affirmed the April CPI reading, running at a 3.8% year-over-year rate as well.8 If you were looking for a silver lining in any of those clouds, it just isn’t there. Based on those readings, we could be in for some difficulties in the next few months, unless a couple of things happen in relatively short order.
First and foremost, we need this Iran situation resolved in a durable and permanent manner. This ceasefire/non-ceasefire nonsense needs to end, as does the “we’re close to a deal any day now” or “we’ll wait as long as we need to” language. We need a deal to be reached soon. If we get that, oil will crater and bring down gas and energy prices with it. That will also drive inflation down to pre-crisis levels.
The other thing that needs to happen is robust economic and wage growth to address the affordability complaints. If people have opportunities and see their wages going up, they won’t feel the pinch of higher prices so much. It also helps when you aren’t being constantly reminded about the price of gas being over $4 per gallon every time you pass a gas station.9 All of this is contingent on a stable global oil market (which will be corrected once the Iran situation is sorted out) and a solid economy (which we can have if the government stays open and out of the way). Every day that goes by without a resolution, we dig the hole a little deeper. And we know the deeper the hole, the harder it will be to dig out.
Coming this week
- Now that inflation data, gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings are out of the way, we kick off a new month with employment readings. Employment has been one of the bright spots, along with earnings, during this entire Iranian crisis.
- Monday will be pretty quiet, with a few Fed speakers, construction spending and auto sales.
- Jobs data will kick off on Tuesday, when we see the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) for April.
- The ADP employment report will be released on Wednesday. We’ll also get the Fed Beige Book (measuring economic conditions across the country), factory orders and MBA mortgage applications.
- Thursday will feature weekly jobless claims and first-quarter U.S. productivity.
- Finally, we’ll get the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment situation on Friday.10 Unemployment stood at 4.3% last month, with 115,000 new jobs reported and hourly wages rising at a 3.6% annual rate. Inflation is at 3.8%, and wages need to rise accordingly to stay ahead. If wage growth lags or new jobs are soft, we could have some problems.
Index Performance Returns % | |||||
| 1 WK | YTD | 1YR | 3YRS | 5YRS | |
| S&P 500® | 1.43% | 10.73% | 28.22% | 21.95% | 12.51% |
| NASDAQ | 2.39% | 16.05% | 41.12% | 27.76% | 14.43% |
| DJIA | 0.90% | 6.18% | 20.73% | 15.57% | 8.13% |
Interest Rates: | |||||
| 5/29/2026 | 5/22/2026 | ||||
| UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield | 4.47% | 4.56% | |||
| Germany 10 YR | 2.95% | 3.17% | |||
| Japan 10 YR | 2.68% | 2.70% | |||
| 30 YR Mortgage | 6.56% | 6.65% | |||
| Oil | $89.39/ppb | $96.60/ppb | |||
| Regular Gas | $4.34/ppg | $4.51/ppg | |||
| All data as of May 29, 2026. | |||||
Sources:
1 Hugh Leask. CNBC. May 29, 2026. “Oil drops 20% from 2026 peak on optimism over U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-prices-iran-ceasefire-us-trump-strait-hormuz-energy-costs.html. Accessed May 31, 2026.
2 Lyndal Rowlands, et al. Al Jazeera. May 29, 2026. “Iran war updates: Tehran says ceasefire deal with US still not reached.” https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/29/iran-war-live-tehran-trump-yet-to-comment-on-60-day-truce-extension-plan. Accessed May 31, 2026.
3 Aamer Madhani, et al. PBS. May 29, 2026. “U.S. and Iranian negotiators reach tentative deal to extend ceasefire and start new nuclear talks.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-and-iranian-negotiators-reach-tentative-deal-to-extend-ceasefire-and-start-new-nuclear-talks. Accessed May 31, 2026.
4 Business Insider. “Oil (WTI).” https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti. Accessed May 31, 2026.
5 CNBC. “U.S. 10 Year Treasury.” https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US.10. Accessed May 31, 2026.
6 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 12, 2026. “Consumer Price Index Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Accessed May 31, 2026.
7 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 13, 2026. “Producer Price Index News Release Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm. Accessed May 31, 2026.
8 Bureau of Economic Analysis. May 28, 2026. “Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026.” https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026. Accessed May 31, 2026.
9 AAA. “Fuel Prices.” https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Accessed May 31, 2026.
10 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 8, 2026. “The Employment Situation — April 2026.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf. Accessed May 31, 2026.
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