AE Wealth Management: Weekly Market Insights | 6/7/26-6/13/26
Weekly Market Commentary
THE WEEK IN REVIEW: June 7-13, 2026
Is it really going to happen this time?
After publicly voicing his frustration with Iran and the lack of progress in reaching an agreement, President Trump started kinetic operations in response to a U.S. helicopter being shot down over the Strait of Hormuz.1 The U.S. bombed Iranian targets for a couple of days before Trump announced a major strike was on the way on Thursday, June 11. Then he canceled it, saying Iran had agreed to a settlement to end the conflict.2 On Friday, some media reports indicated Iran agreed to a deal, which came to fruition on Monday.3
Confused by all the back and forth? So were the markets last week, and we saw major swoons and spikes. After the S&P 500 posted its most recent record high of 7,610 on June 2, the index dropped to as low as 7,267 last Wednesday before bouncing back somewhat by the end of the week.4
Markets were moved by the events in Iran and oil, which sank to $84.40 per barrel as the week ended, its lowest price since early March.5 A wobbly tech sector also played a part, with chips and AI taking a big hit.6 The other big contributor to a crazy week was higher-than-expected inflation readings for May, which stoked rate hike talk and economic slowdown fears (more in the next section).
The bottom line here is that the market has pretty much moved past the Iranian conflict, and the new dialogue is about the AI boom petering out, plus chipmakers being overpriced. If interest rates go up in response to higher inflation, owning stocks in the AI and chip sectors isn’t as attractive in the present, since they can’t show much profit, and they’re more susceptible to higher rates as they borrow funds to build their companies.
Then there was all the hype last week about the SpaceX IPO, which launched Friday as the biggest IPO in history.7 The stock opened the day at $135 and closed at $160.95. The price will run for a while, but there will likely be an opportunity to buy it on a dip and maybe even below the IPO price. If you want to own SpaceX, then you might want to wait for the price to come down and buy it for the long haul.
Inflation keeps grinding higher
Both the consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) climbed higher in May — no surprise given that oil hovered around $90 per barrel for most of the month. CPI topped 4.2% year over year, right in line with the forecast.8 The big surprise was that PPI came in at a blistering 6.5% year over year, exceeding consensus expectations of 6.4%.9
The rise in inflation can be blamed primarily on higher energy costs. We’ve heard that the cost of energy will decline, and inflation will follow as it does. That may be true for textbooks, but we’re dealing with a lot of intangibles, including people and countries that may not always play by the book. Once oil drops, countries will want to restock and perhaps even hoard oil for the next global crisis. That would keep energy costs higher for longer for producers and consumers, which will spur the Federal Reserve to raise rates to fight stubbornly higher inflation. Then the economy will slow down, and so will the markets.
It’s pretty easy to follow the cycle: Prices rise quickly in the face of crisis, but come down or normalize very slowly. Unfortunately, we don’t see inflation coming down quickly, and we’re already feeling repercussions from the rise throughout our economy.
Coming this week
- Now that jobs and inflation are done for the month, there won’t be much data this week. But that doesn’t mean markets will be quiet. Developments in Iran, inflation and the potential for higher rates, plus the wobbly tech sector, will make things spicy.
- On Monday, we’ll get the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production, capital utilization and NAHB Housing Index, all mundane and non-impactful reports.
- Tuesday marks the start of the first Fed meeting with Kevin Warsh as the new chair. Warsh will give his first post-meeting news conference on Wednesday. It’s widely expected that the Fed will keep rates where they are, but we’ll have to watch Warsh’s language and see how members vote.10 If markets catch a whiff that interest rates are going up anytime soon, it won’t be met with enthusiasm.
- We’ll also see retail sales, pending home sales and MBA mortgage applications on Wednesday.
- Thursday will feature the usual weekly unemployment claims. A big shift upward would be concerning to the market, since the jobs situation has been one of the bright spots the past few months.
- We’ll also get leading indicators on Thursday to close out the week on a quiet note, since there is no data scheduled for release on Friday.
Index Performance Returns % | |||||
| 1 WK | YTD | 1YR | 3YRS | 5YRS | |
| S&P 500® | 0.65% | 8.56% | 22.93% | 19.65% | 11.84% |
| NASDAQ | 0.70% | 11.39% | 31.67% | 24.36% | 12.97% |
| DJIA | 0.66% | 6.53% | 19.16% | 14.55% | 8.23% |
Interest Rates: | |||||
| 6/12/2026 | 6/5/2026 | ||||
| UST 10 YR Government Bond Yield | 4.83% | 4.53% | |||
| Germany 10 YR | 3.00% | 3.03% | |||
| Japan 10 YR | 2.62% | 2.66% | |||
| 30 YR Mortgage | 6.57% | 6.52% | |||
| Oil | $84.88/ppb | $90.54/ppb | |||
| Regular Gas | $4.07/ppg | $4.19/ppg | |||
| All data as of June 12, 2026. | |||||
Sources:
1 Duarte Dias, et al. CBS News. June 11, 2026. “U.S. and Iran trade attacks again after Trump pledges Tehran will ‘pay the price’ for not accepting deal.” https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-strikes-apache/. Accessed June 14, 2026.
2 Jaroslav Lukiv. BBC. June 14, 2026. “Trump says US-Iran deal to be signed on Sunday as Tehran casts doubt on timing.” https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvglmn49xz0o. Accessed June 14, 2026.
³ John Gambrell and Elena Becatoros. The Associated Press. June 15, 2026. “Iran and US reach an initial deal to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz but challenges remain.” https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-war-oil-june-15-2026-77406473da38c6c126818610a219dc20. Accessed June 15, 2026.
4 Yahoo! Finance. “S&P 500 (ˆGSPC).” https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. Accessed June 14, 2026.
5 Business Insider. “Oil (WTI).” https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti. Accessed June 14, 2026.
6 PBS News. June 8, 2026. “Wall Street holds steadier as AI stocks recover some of last week’s sell-off.” https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/wall-street-holds-steadier-as-ai-stocks-recover-some-of-last-weeks-sell-off. Accessed June 14, 2026.
7 Ashley Capoot, et al. CNBC. June 12, 2026. “SpaceX IPO takeaways: SPCS closes at $161, jumping 19% after record debut.” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/12/spacex-ipo-spcx-live-updates.html. Accessed June 14, 2026.
8 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June 10, 2026. “Consumer Price Index Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm. Accessed June 14, 2026.
9 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June 11, 2026. “Producer Price Index News Release Summary.” https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm. Accessed June 14, 2026.
10 CME Group. “FedWatch.” https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html. Accessed June 14, 2026.
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